Increasing canopy mortality affects the future demographic structure of Europe's forests

نویسندگان

چکیده

•Canopy mortality has consistently increased across Europe in the past three decades•Increasing canopy will have profound changes on forest demography•Current rates of hold aging trend Europe's forests•Future increases might lead to widespread decline age Land use and climate change are challenging forests around globe. An important indicator increasing pressure ecosystems is tree mortality, that is, proportion trees dying per year from both natural human causes. Increasing can substantially alter demography toward younger age, which negative consequences for biodiversity carbon storage because old provide valuable habitat high stocks. We show all decades. Those historic and—if further—push age. In order sustain services provided by society, developing strategies address should be a key priority policy management. pervasive impacts dynamics. Yet, large-scale trends their effects remain poorly quantified despite role pools biodiversity. Analyzing satellite data at 19,896 plots, we here 35 European countries 1985 2018 (+1.5% ± 0.28% yr?1). Using simulations, demonstrate recent levels halt further increase potential strongly forests. These demographic cascading storage. Developing thus management Europe. Tree process ecosystems. It drives ecosystem dynamics occurs different spatial scales, level individual trees1Franklin J.F. Spies T.A. Pelt R.V. Carey A.B. Thornburgh D.A. Berg D.R. Lindenmayer D.B. Harmon M.E. Keeton W.S. Shaw D.C. et al.Disturbances structural development with silvicultural implications, using Douglas-fir as an example.For. Ecol. Manag. 2002; 155: 399-423Crossref Scopus (1166) Google Scholar,2Lutz J.A. Halpern C.B. during early development: long-term study rates, causes, consequences.Ecol. Monogr. 2006; 76: 257-275Crossref (171) Scholar pulses referred disturbances.3Turner M.G. 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Schuck 19th 20th centuries.Glob. 2003; 9: 1620-1633Crossref (642) 19Senf spatially diverse but temporally synchronized landscapes Europe.Glob. 24: 1201-1211Crossref (49) 20Senf Pflugmacher Zhiqiang Y. Sebald Knorrn Neumann Hostert Canopy doubled Europe’s last decades.Nat. Commun. 4978Crossref (74) This explained utilization resources20Senf Scholar,21Forest EuropeState Forests 2015. Ministerial Conference Protection 2015https://foresteurope.org/state-europes-forests-2015-report/Google well more frequent severe disturbances.8Seidl resources affect influence functioning forests.8Seidl Scholar,22Nabuurs G.-J. Lindner Gunia K. Deda Michalak Grassi First signs sink saturation biomass.Nat. 792-796Crossref (191) 23Pedroli Elbersen Frederiksen Grandin U. Heikkilä Krogh P.H. Izakovi?ová Johansen Meiresonne L. Spijker Is energy cropping compatible biodiversity? – Opportunities threats land-based production biomass bioenergy purposes.Biomass Bioenergy. 55: 73-86Crossref (107) 24Searchinger T.D. Beringer Holtsmark Kammen D.M. Lambin E.F. Lucht Raven van Ypersele J.-P. renewable directive poised harm forests.Nat. 3741Crossref (54) However, most relies compilations gray literature8Seidl focuses regional trends.19Senf Scholar,20Senf Thus, robust quantitative estimates resulting missing. these knowledge gaps (1) manually interpreting images plot locations covering 210 million ha area 34-year period robustly quantifying human-caused (2) applying simulations determine how potentially scenarios stabilizing mortality. find +1.5% yr?1 1.50% (Figure 1). The average rate late century (1985–1999) was 0.79% 0.04% (i.e., 1.7 affected each year) 0.99% 2.1 yr?1) 21st (2000–2018). Mortality accelerating pace throughout observation period, highest 34 years (1.14% 0.16% Changes varied between regions 2). Of analyzed, 28 had positive 2; Table S1 Figure S2). Trends were strongest central eastern where 55% 78%, respectively, century. Weaker still northern 39% 19%, over same period. No detected southwestern southeastern weak Drivers manifold interactive vary locally. in-depth analyses local beyond scope this study, discuss several coinciding continental-scale developments likely contribute Europe: first, large parts accumulated stock decades,25Ciais Zaehle Piao S.L. Cescatti Liski Luyssaert Le-Maire Bouriaud O. al.Carbon accumulation Geosci. 1: 425-429Crossref (216) started utilizing growing timber actively annual fellings.26European Environment AgencyEuropean Ecosystems - State Trends. Agency, 2016https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-forest-ecosystemsGoogle notion harvest factor contributing supported correlation our wood-harvesting statistics (Figures S3 S4), indicating vast majority herein fact, removed timber. does, however, include planned salvage logging response disturbances. Second, collapse Soviet Union led transformations economic political systems pronounced regular harvests illegal logging.27Kuemmerle Radeloff V.C. Perzanowski Kruhlov I. Post-socialist carpathian border region Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine.Ecol. Appl. 2007; 17: 1279-1295Crossref (112) particularly strong former S2) part those historical legacies. Third, seen episodes storm events bark beetle decades,8Seidl Hence, disturbances—a result legacies change28Seidl M.-J. Lexer Unraveling intensifying regimes 2011; 2842-2852Crossref (312) Scholar—can considered additional driver trends. Increased caused reported recently,7Allen Scholar,29Carnicer Coll Ninyerola Pons Sanchez Penuelas Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, amplified change-type drought.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108: 1474-1478Crossref (509) Scholar,30Senf Buras Zang C.S. Rammig Excess linked Europe.Nat. 11: 6200Crossref (14) consequence affecting Europe.31Buras Quantifying comparison 2003.Biogeosciences. 1655-1672Crossref (66) Scholar,32Schuldt Arend Vitasse Beierkuhnlein Damm Gharun Grams T.E.E. Hauck Hajek first assessment extreme summer Central forests.Basic 45: 86-103Crossref (100) context, interesting note, did not southern warm dry areas prone drought-induced dieback.7Allen past, dieback Mediterranean too dispersed trigger imagery.33Hartmann Schuldt Sanders T.G.M. Macinnis-Ng Boehmer H.J. Bolte Crowther Medlyn al.Monitoring patterns Report VW symposium “Crossing scales disciplines identify indicators health.”.New Phytol. 217: 984-987Crossref (32) Likewise, although fire activity expected Mediterranean34Moriondo Good Durao Bindi Giannakopoulos Corte-Real Potential risk area.Clim. Res. 31: 85-95Crossref (313) actual number fires burned decreased decades35San-Miguel-Ayanz Moreno Camia Analysis landscapes: lessons learned perspectives.For. 294: 11-22Crossref (262) (see S5). Despite decrease 2017 characterized unprecedentedly seasons,36San-Miguel-Ayanz Durrant Boca Libertà Branco De rigo al.Forest Fires Middle East North Africa 2017. Joint Reserach Centre Comission, 2018https://doi.org/10.2760/663443Crossref Scholar,37San-Miguel-Ayanz 2018. 2019https://doi.org/10.2760/561734Crossref contributed Finally, note only 2.6% nonforest land. That land-use relatively minor importance widely varying trajectories future S6). A stabilization (1985–2018) would drastic 3). scenario fact considerable amounts median 60 older) current situation. currently outweighs scenario. 2018, stop 3), leading dominated (median than 30 years). continued instance, 14% today, 53% 3% 2050 if continue. inverse challenge least ways. First, complicate regeneration decreasing seed availability distance sources mature producing seeds decrease.11Anderson-Teixeira prevalence reduced simultaneously reduces diversity classes landscape, biological homogenization habitats.38van der Plas F. Manning Soliveres Allan E. Scherer-Lorenzen Verheyen Wirth Zavala M.A. Ampoorter Baeten al.Biotic landscape-scale multifunctionality.Proc. USA. 113: 3557-3562Crossref (128) developmental stages biodiversity,39Hilmers Friess Bässler Heurich Brandl Pretzsch Müller Butt Biodiversity along succession.J. 2756-2766Crossref (73) residence time ecosystems40Pugh T.A.M. Arneth Kautz Poulter Important turnover sinks.Nat. 2019; : 1-6Google Scholar,41Yu W.K. Trugman A.T. Condit Hubbell S.P. Sardans Peng Zhu Peñuelas Cailleret decreases living vegetation zones.Proc. 116: 24662-24667Crossref (18) total stored forests.42Körner matter longevity.Science. 2017; 355: 130-131Crossref (91) hotspots act sinks.16Zhou Fewer hence offset enhanced uptake accelerated growth change.41Yu employed remote-sensing obtain consistent picture offer unique opportunity estimate broad boundaries, they come certain limitations need when results. operating variable single entire landscapes, rather coarse grain analysis (30 m), omit finest scale death). degree omission difficult quantify, group recognizable distinct spectral data. said, trees, happening sub-canopy, omitted analysis. Our strict underestimate true intensive manual interpretation, sample sizes limited. To account this, set statistical tools prevent detection false arising noise experimental procedures). absence few reliably cannot taken encourage research verify improve Further work aim underlying clarify whether responsible simple simulation-based meant predict Uneven-aged stands, cover approximately 28% area,21Forest represented modeling, instance. Future elaborate simulation approaches used investigate detail. Here, demography. paramount carefully ongoing better drivers, implement safeguard achieved via resistance resilience by, e.g., counteracting homogenization; conserving existing promoting old-growth forests, especially places low; (3) accounting planning; (4) considering managing bio-based economy. conclude

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: One earth

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2590-3322', '2590-3330']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.008